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Recent commentary from policymakers and on Wall Street indicates there's not much else the committee can do at this point. But they're still hopeful that they will be in a position to cut rates later." Markets actually have held up pretty well since Powell made those comments on April 16, though stocks sold off Tuesday ahead of the meeting. Some on Wall Street, though, are still hopeful that inflation data will show progress and allow the central bank to cut. The Wall Street bank's economists are preparing for the possibility that the Fed could be on hold for longer, particularly if inflation continues to surprise to the upside.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Kent Nishimura, Guy LeBas, Janney Montgomery Scott, they're, Powell, We've, there's, specter, LeBas, There's, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, , Donald Trump, Goldman, Mericle Organizations: Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs Committee, Getty, Federal Reserve, Federal, Market Committee, Fed, Dow Jones, Department, Labor Department, Republican
Elizabeth Frantz | ReutersIt appears the great inflation scare of 2024 is upon us. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, grew 2.8% from a year earlier in March. The recent inflation numbers have reduced the expected number of cuts down to one or two, with the first cut anticipated to arrive much later this year. Some recent signs of cooling emergeCommodity prices, like cocoa , coffee and copper , have been on a tear in 2024. Despite all the military activity in the Middle East, oil prices have been reasonably well behaved, taking into consideration the energy shocks of years past.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Elizabeth Frantz, , specter Organizations: Federal, Committee, Reuters, Fed, Hamas Locations: Washington , U.S, Israel
Dollar a tad softer as markets wait for Fed
  + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Japan's yen was at 158.05 per dollar, up nearly 0.2% in quiet trading with Tokyo markets closed for the first of the country's Golden Week holidays. "The bar is pretty high for a sustained hawkish surprise, which would in turn lift yields," he said, referring to the Fed. "The BOJ disappointment might be transcribed onto the FOMC insofar that they may be more undecided than decidedly hawkish." The Fed is seen holding its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.25%-to-5.5% at the April 30-May 1 meeting. Markets are also on guard for any intervention by Japanese authorities to contain the yen's nearly 11% fall this year.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Vishnu Varathan, Sterling Organizations: U.S, Bank of, Mizuho Bank, Market Committee Locations: Japan, Tokyo, Bank of Japan, Asia, Singapore
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell met with the press after the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which was pretty fraught. Data centers If there is the whiff of a data center or anything in one, the stock goes higher. It's why Meta stock is a buy a tad lower as stocks tend to revisit those kinds of declines. I worry about Club stock Stanley Black & Decker for this reason, but the dividend will keep it propped up for now. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: what's, Jerome Powell, Powell, Powell isn't, Voltaire, Vertiv, Eaton, Meta, It's, jetsam, Darius Adamczyk, Vimal, Stanley Black, Decker, Azek, Morgan Stanley, Wells, Charlie Scharf, Wells Fargo, Chipotle, that's, Johnson, Jensen Huang, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Scott Mlyn Organizations: Federal, Market, Broadcom, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, Travel American Express, Raytheon, GE Aerospace, Royal, AAR, Honeywell, Southwest Airlines, Housing, Stanley, JPMorgan, Procter, Gamble, Colgate, Merck, Bristol, Myers, PepsiCo, Energy, Coterra Energy, Diamondback, drillers, CNBC Locations: California, Royal Caribbean, Delta, Devon
Some members of Trump's team want to restructure the Federal Reserve, the WSJ reported. That could include allowing the president to have a direct say on interest rate decisions. Trump has previously been critical of Powell's handling of interest rates during the pandemic. To help the Fed achieve its 2% inflation target, the Federal Open Market Committee has hiked interest rates 11 consecutive times since March 2022. Advertisement"I think he's going to do something to probably help the Democrats, I think, if he lowers interest rates," Trump said, adding that "it looks to me like he's trying to lower interest rates for the sake of maybe getting people elected."
Persons: Jerome Powell, , Donald Trump, Trump, President Trump, Susie Wiles, Chris LaCivita, Powell, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Joe Biden, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Biden Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Street, Trump, Management, Federal, Fed, Fox News, Republican, Florida Gov, South Carolina Gov, Biden, GOP Locations: New York
So the question is, are we going to have issues if rates remain higher for longer?" But financial markets, despite a recent 5.5% selloff for the S&P 500, have largely held up amid the higher-rate landscape. Higher rates can be a good signHistory tells differing stories about the consequences of a hawkish Fed, both for markets and the economy. Higher rates are generally a good thing so long as they're associated with growth. Futures market pricing implies a fed funds rate of 4.32% by December 2025, indicating a higher rate trajectory.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Mandel Ngan, Quincy Krosby, Krosby, Paul Volcker, David Kelly, Kelly, , Goldman Sachs, Loretta Mester Organizations: Federal Reserve, Financial, Afp, Getty, LPL, Fed, Asset Management, Market, Cleveland Fed, European Union Locations: Washington , DC
In recent months, the company has foreshowed it plans to challenge the law on First Amendment grounds. Krishnan said even the national security argument will not withstand legal scrutiny because the Chinese government could easily purchase the same data on Americans through the open market. TikTok’s looming legal challenge will be one of several that could eventually reach the US Supreme Court that could completely redefine online speech. Other high-profile cases that will determine whether social media companies can moderate content on their platforms are also likely to be decided this year. “The rules for online speech are being written by the Supreme Court this year,” Persily said.
Persons: CNN —, Joe Biden, , Shou Chew, TikTok, Ramya Krishnan, Nate Persily, Persily, , Christopher Wray, ” Wray, ” TikTok, ” Persily, Krishnan Organizations: CNN, Communist Party, Columbia University, Stanford, Stanford Cyber Policy, American, FBI, NBC, Supreme Locations: China, Montana, TikTok, American
Washington CNN —Congress finalized legislation on Tuesday that could lead to a nationwide TikTok ban, escalating a massive threat to the company’s US operations. What does the TikTok legislation do? The earlier TikTok bill had been passed by the House, but it stalled in the Senate. In a procedural move, House Republicans this month attached the revised TikTok bill to the foreign aid package in hopes of forcing the Senate to vote on the TikTok legislation. Bundling the bill with the foreign aid — a top US priority — fast-tracked the TikTok bill and made it more likely to pass.
Persons: Joe Biden’s, Biden, there’s, Will Biden, Jennifer Gay, Mariam Zuhaib, , TikTok, Shou Chew, , Nadine Farid Johnson, ByteDance Organizations: Washington CNN —, Republicans, Senate, White, U.S . Capitol, U.S, TikTok, Columbia University, Locations: Israel, Ukraine, United States, Washington, China
Though it was unthinkable just a short time ago, the question of what it would take the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further is gaining increasing attention. New York Fed President John Williams faced questioning Thursday about hiking and said he doesn't expect that to happen, but noted that it's always an option. "Basically, if the data were telling us that we would need higher interest rates to achieve our goal, then we would obviously want to do that." Making the same mistake as the 1970s central bank — hiking rates to fight inflation, then cutting prematurely and allowing inflation to return — is a sensitive issue for the Powell Fed. Chances are low, for now So far, only Fed Governor Michelle Bowman has given any credence to the notion of raising rates.
Persons: John Williams, it's, Williams, Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, Powell, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Esther George Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, New York Fed, Summit, DataTrek, CME, Kansas City, CNBC Locations: Washington, Kansas
What to know about the TikTok ban bill the House passed
  + stars: | 2024-04-20 | by ( Brian Fung | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
CNN —House lawmakers have once again passed legislation that could lead to a nationwide TikTok ban, renewing a massive threat to the company’s US operations. In March, House lawmakers approved a bill that would give TikTok roughly six months to sell. Another factor that’s shaking things up is how House Republicans inserted the TikTok bill into a much larger foreign aid package. Biden endorsed the prior version of the TikTok bill, which suggests he may quickly sign any foreign aid package that includes similar language targeting TikTok. In addition to complying with the legislation, TikTok could challenge it in court and has made no secret that it might do so.
Persons: TikTok, Joe Biden, there’s, who’ve, Washington Democratic Sen, Maria Cantwell, Paul Gallant, Cowen, Gallant, Joe Biden’s, Biden, , Shou Chew, , Nadine Farid Johnson, ByteDance Organizations: CNN —, White, Washington Democratic, Republicans, House, Senate, Inc, Columbia University, , TikTok Locations: United States, Ukraine, Israel, China
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee speaks at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, U.S., February 14, 2024. Staff | Reuters"If you take a broad view, inflation got way above where we were comfortable with and it's down a lot," he said. The first three readings for this year indicate covering the remaining distance to 2% "may not be as rapid," he added. He described himself as a "proud data dog," and pointed to what he says is "the first rule of the kennel." "If you are unclear, stop walking and start sniffing," he said.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee Organizations: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Council, Foreign Relations, Staff, Reuters, Market Locations: New York, U.S
Dollar takes a breather as investors ponder U.S. rates outlook
  + stars: | 2024-04-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar was soft on Thursday as traders assessed the U.S. interest rates outlook in the wake of comments from Federal Reserve officials that cemented expectation of monetary settings remaining restrictive for a while longer. The dollar was soft on Thursday as traders assessed the U.S. interest rates outlook in the wake of comments from Federal Reserve officials that cemented expectation of monetary settings remaining restrictive for a while longer. The yen strengthened 0.05% to 154.29 a dollar but remained close to the 34-year low of 154.79 touched on Tuesday. Japan last intervened in the currency market in 2022, spending an estimated $60 billion to defend the yen. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar was little changed at $0.6439, while the New Zealand dollar eased a bit to $0.5914 after spiking 0.6% on Wednesday.
Persons: Sterling, Michelle Bowman, Kristina Clifton, Tony Sycamore Organizations: Federal Reserve, Traders, Market Committee, Federal, Fed, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, IG, Japan, New Zealand Locations: U.S, Japan, South Korea, Tokyo, Seoul
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., March 20, 2024. The U.S. economy could be headed for stormy waters in 2025 if the Federal Reserve does not take action soon on interest rates, State Street's head of investment strategy in EMEA said Tuesday. "The traditional transmission policy mechanism has broken, or doesn't work as well," Kassam told "Squawk Box Europe." As such, the impact of, for example, sustained higher interest rates may not be felt until further down the line when they come to refinance. "For now, consumers and corporates aren't feeling the pinch of higher interest rates," he added.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Altaf Kassam, Kassam Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Fed Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference following a closed two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy at the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C., on Dec. 13, 2023. Since July 2023, the Fed has kept its benchmark interest rate in a target range between 5.25%-5.5%, the highest in 23 years. Powell added that until inflation shows more progress, "We can maintain the current level of restriction for as long as needed." The comments follow inflation data through the first three months of 2024 that has been higher than expected. The benchmark 2-year note , which is especially sensitive to Fed rate moves, briefly topped 5%, while the benchmark 10-year yield rose 3 basis points.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, hasn't Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, Fed, Treasury Locations: Washington ,, U.S, Canada
Two men are holding Iranian banknotes on a sidewalk in Tehran's business district, in Tehran, Iran, on April 13, 2024. Iran's currency, the rial, briefly plunged to a record low against the dollar on the unofficial market, after Tehran launched an expansive missile and drone attack on Israel on Saturday night, exacerbating tensions in the Middle East. The exchange rate was at 705,000 rials / USD on the open market around 10:30 a.m. local time on Sunday, according to data from foreign exchange monitoring site Bonbast. The government set an official exchange rate of 42,000 rials / USD in 2018. The development marked the first instance of a direct attack on Israel from Iranian territory, and Tehran now runs the risk of being hit with further trade and diplomatic restrictions.
Persons: Joe Biden, Iran's rial, Donald Trump's, Biden Organizations: Israel, . Security Locations: Tehran, Iran, Israel, Damascus, U.S
watch nowFederal Reserve officials at their March meeting expressed concern that inflation wasn't moving lower quickly enough, though they still expected to cut interest rates at some point this year. "Participants generally noted their uncertainty about the persistence of high inflation and expressed the view that recent data had not increased their confidence that inflation was moving sustainably down to 2 percent," the minutes said. In what apparently was a lengthy discussion about inflation at the meeting, officials said geopolitical turmoil and rising energy prices remain risks that could push inflation higher. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., March 20, 2024. That part of the discussion was partly relevant considering the release came the same day that the Fed received more bad news on inflation.
Persons: FOMC, Jerome Powell, Elizabeth Frantz Organizations: Federal Reserve, Market, Fed, U.S . Federal, Federal, Committee, Reuters Locations: China, U.S, Washington , U.S
"While investors seem to be anxiously awaiting easing monetary policy, the current environment does not quite scream 'rate cuts!'" That sentiment has manifested itself lately in market pricing. That same day, the Labor Department will release the CPI report, which is expected to show the headline inflation rate rising 3.4% in March on a year-over-year basis, per Dow Jones. This is nonetheless "the right time to cut rates," wrote David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. "What has underpinned this market is the promise of a series of rate cuts including March, and now it has dwindled to just a few rate cuts.
Persons: Glenmede, Dow Jones, David Kelly, Kelly, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Ed Yardeni, nonfarm, Quincy Krosby, Krosby Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investors, Labor Department, Asset Management, Fed, DataTrek, Yardeni, LPL
Those thresholds for the share price are well below where Trump Media stock was trading on Monday, when it closed at $37.17, down more than 8%. The filing disclosed that Trump Media awarded company stock to Nunes, chief financial officer Phillip Juhan, and chief operating officer Andrew Northwall. The three top executives, like Trump himself, are currently barred from selling any of their common stock in Trump Media for the next six months. CNBC asked a spokeswoman for Trump Media why promissory notes were used to grant stock to the executives. Legal battlesBesides Trump, the biggest shareholders in Trump Media are two corporate entities.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Donald Trump, Devin Nunes, Trump, Kevin Murphy, Murphy, Nunes, Phillip Juhan, Andrew Northwall, Juhan, Northwall, DWAC, we've, Tom Williams, Kash Patel, Patel, Dan Scavino, Scavino, Department of Defense Kash Patel, Justin Sullivan, Sandro De Moraes, Vladimir Novachki, Scott Glabe, Novachki, Glabe, De Moraes, Eric Swider, beneficially, Renatus, Swider, Andy Litinsky, Wes Moss, Moss, Patrick Orlando, Mike Pont Organizations: Trump Media, Trump . Trump Media, Nasdaq, Corp, Trump, University of Southern, Securities and Exchange Commission, DWAC, SEC, CNBC, Partners, Northwall, Juhan, Trump Media's, U.S, Capitol, CQ, Inc, Getty, Equity, Messrs, Republican, Hudson Digital, Trump White House, Staff, Department of Defense, Digital, Renatus, ARC Global, United Atlantic Ventures, Twitter, Facebook, NBC, FilmMagic Locations: Juhan, California, Minden, Minden , Nevada, Orlando, New York City
Hopeful homebuyers should expect mortgage rates to remain elevated for at least a couple more months. If inflation eases in the coming months and the Fed is able to start cutting its benchmark rate, mortgage rates should drop as expected. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. This is good news for mortgage rates — as inflation slows and the Federal Reserve is able to start cutting the federal funds rate, mortgage rates are expected to trend down as well.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Fannie Mae Organizations: Federal, Zillow, Federal Reserve, Mortgage, Association, ARM Locations: Chevron
Noting a number of potential upside risks to inflation, Bowman said policymakers need to be careful not to ease policy too quickly. "Reducing our policy rate too soon or too quickly could result in a rebound in inflation, requiring further future policy rate increases to return inflation to 2 percent over the longer run." The speech, to the Shadow Open Market Committee, comes with markets on edge about the near-term future of Fed policy. Weighing inflation risks, she said that supply-side improvements that helped bring numbers down this year may not have the same impact going forward. Fed officials will get their next look at inflation data Wednesday, when the Labor Department releases the March consumer price index report.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Jerome Powell, Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari Organizations: Federal, of Governors, Market, Committee, Atlanta Fed, CNBC, Minneapolis Fed, Fed, Labor Department Locations: New York
Economists polled by FactSet anticipate the March consumer price index will show prices rising by 0.3% on a monthly basis, less than February's 0.4% advance. Similarly, the March producer price index is expected to show an increase of 0.5%, according to FactSet consensus estimates. Monday April 8 Tuesday April 9 6 a.m. NFIB Small Business Index (March) Wednesday April 10 8:30 a.m. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (March) 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (04/06) 8:30 a.m. Producer Price Index PPI Earnings: CarMax Friday April 12 8:30 a.m. Import Price Index (March) 10 a.m. Michigan Sentiment preliminary (April) Earnings: State Street , Wells Fargo , JPMorgan Chase , Progressive , Citigroup
Persons: Stocks, we're, Ross Mayfield, Baird, Mayfield, FactSet, David Einhorn, CNBC's Scott Wapner, he's, Michelle Bowman, Bank's Tom Hainlin, Hainlin, Jamie Myers, JPMorgan Chase Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investors, Treasury Bond, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, . West Texas, Treasury, Fed, Investment Group, Investors Intelligence, American Association of, Walmart, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Index, Treasury Budget NSA, Air Lines, Price Index, Progressive Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, Michigan
CNBC Daily Open: A projection is not a promise
  + stars: | 2024-04-03 | by ( Clement Tan | In Clemtan | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineU.S. Federal Reserve officials are dampening rate cut expectations again, and again. In comments echoing those of the Federal Open Market Committee's two weeks ago, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Tuesday she expects cuts this year — but wants to see more convincing evidence that inflation has been subdued. "Three rate cuts is a projection, and a projection is not a promise," Daly said.
Persons: Spencer Platt, Mary Daly, Daly, Loretta Mester, Vishnu Varathan, , Jeff Cox Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Getty, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Federal, San Francisco Fed, Cleveland Federal, Malaysian, U.S Locations: New York City, U.S, Asia, Japan
"I've made a terrible mistake," Gerald Shvartsman, 46, told Judge Lewis Liman in Manhattan federal court as he pleaded guilty, according to the Associated Press. Michael Shvartsman, 53, and Gerald Shvartsman, who owns a furniture manufacturing company, are scheduled to be sentenced on July 17. Sentencing guidelines recommend that Gerald Shvartsman, who netted about $4.6 million in illegal trading profits, receive a prison term of between 33 and 41 months. Alan Futerfas, a lawyer for Michael Shvartsman, declined to comment on the guilty plea. A lawyer for Gerald Shvartsman did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Michael Shvartsman, Gerald Shvartsman, DWAC, I've, Judge Lewis Liman, Bruce Garelick, Michael Shvartsman's, Liman, Damian Williams, Alan Futerfas Organizations: Trump Media & Technology Group, Trump Media, Associated Press, Rocket, Manhattan U.S Locations: Florida, New York, Manhattan, Michael Shvartsman's Miami
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said it's still too soon to feel confident in cutting interest rates. But he emphasized that the timing for any rate cuts will not have anything to do with the election. The discussion comes after the Fed maintained its interest rate level in its most recent decision in March. While the Federal Open Market Committee forecast three interest rate cuts in December, Powell said on Wednesday that it'll take more data for the Fed to feel confident enough to implement that relief. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.
Persons: Jerome Powell, it's, Trump, Powell, , Sundhar Pinchai Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Stanford's Business, Government, Society Forum, Google, Fed, Federal, Business
Federal Reserve Bank Chair Jerome Powell speaks during the Stanford Business, Government and Society Forum at Stanford University on April 03, 2024 in Stanford, California. Justin Sullivan | Getty ImagesFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday it will take a while for policymakers to evaluate the current state of inflation, keeping the timing of potential interest rate cuts uncertain. "We do not expect that it will be appropriate to lower our policy rate until we have greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2 percent," he added. "Recent readings on both job gains and inflation have come in higher than expected," Powell said. The uncertainty about rates has caused some consternation in markets, with stocks falling sharply earlier this week as Treasury yields moved higher.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Justin Sullivan, Powell, Raphael Bostic, Mary Daly, Cleveland's Loretta Mester Organizations: Bank, Stanford Business, Government, Society, Stanford University, Getty, Federal, Market, Atlanta Fed, CNBC, San Francisco Fed, Group Locations: Stanford , California
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